the box office gross as a metric for a film’s success is a dubious one. At best, it’s an interesting data point that shows the immediate cultural impact of the film. It also undoubtedly informs the decision-making process in the age of franchises. the box office prediction for Shang-Chi and the legend of the ten Rings is both good and bad news. If the film equals the opening weekend box office for Black Widow, it will break the record for Labor Day Weekend, including pre-pandemic years. Currently, the top spots are held by 2007’s Halloween and 2020’s Tenet. Both made just north of $58 million worldwide. So, in theory, Shang-Chi could fall well below the box office prediction and still be the highest-grossing Labor Day motion picture of all time.
Much of the box office method in Hollywood is based on what amounts to legend. One such legend is that in the last weekend of summer, people don’t go to the movies. Thus, studios usually don’t drop motion pictures that weekend. Instead, it’s the bastion calendar spot for odd motion pictures like 2006’s The Wicker man and 2010’s Machete. It’s also the weekend Warner Bros. chose to drop Tenet, the first post-lockdown trial balloon for motion picture theaters.
So, in buy for Shang-Chi to be seen as a box office success, it really only has to top $60 million globally, half of that in the us and Canada. The budget for this motion picture is certainly in the $185-$225 million range (before marketing), and if things go well, it could even make its money back. Yet, the lingering issues surrounding the pandemic make this whole service tantamount to raw speculation.
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The Shang-Chi Box office Prediction Expects a broken Record
image by means of marvel Studios
The box office prediction for Shang-Chi and the legend of the ten Rings expects the motion picture to meet or exceed Black Widow’s $80 million opening. In fact, they seem to expect it to go even higher than that considering that there isn’t a concurrent release on Disney+. The claim from Black Widow star Scarlett Johansson likely put the kibosh on any future Disney Premier access titles for now. Ironically, Black Widow is still the highest-grossing film for 2021 with $181.4 million to-date. If Shang-Chi has respectable legs past the opening weekend, it could easily take the top spot from Black Widow. If people want to see this motion picture multiple times, the theater is the only place they can do that until it hits Disney+. The “interesting experiment” here is whether or not people will just wait the six weeks for it to hit the streaming service.
On the other hand, if people do turn out in droves for this movie, it could be a substantial improve to motion picture theaters. For example, if this film hits over $100 million on its opening weekend, that’s still very low relatively speaking for any movie, let alone a marvel Studios joint. But, it would be a staggering amount for the reality of the box office in 2021. The 45-day run could, in theory, double the total earned by Black Widow, and still not make back the budget and marketing costs. Similarly, if it drives up Disney+ subscriptions, the mouse house will have a clear incentive to put their tentpoles in their own tent as swiftly as possible.
Still, even if Shang-Chi and the legend of the ten Rings falls short of its box office prediction, this is likely still an “added value” situation for the MCU.
Why Box office may Not be the only Metric for Success for Shang-Chi
image by means of marvel Studios
The folks at marvel Studios have to expect that one day, eventually, one of their motion pictures will “flop.” What that means, however, is not any one thing. Let’s say the absolute worst case scenario happens, and Shang-Chi only brings in $20 million globally. (And pre-sale numbers are already pushing $7 million.) Also, once the motion picture hits Disney+, it doesn’t do spectacular numbers. This film could still be a feather in marvel Studios’ cap, at least to everyone but Disney investors. The positive review action and the fact that this film highlights an underrepresented social demographic is good for the studio. As years go on, the box office will be forgotten but kids who like martial arts, superheroes, and fantasy, will find and enjoy this movie. It is another gateway into the MCU. Though, it will probably push back Eternals and other big releases.
They also now have Shang-Chi as a character who could, at the very least, pop up in other marvel Studios projects. The way they handled the character of Bruce Banner or Tony Stark after Iron man 3, could be the model here. Some hold appearances in a lot more successful films in the future could create an audience for an eventual continuation of the Shang-Chi franchise. The future of enjoyment was in a state of flux before the pandemic. So, a box office failure for Shang-Chi (with fair to middling performance on Disney+) could keep this franchise alive in a way that wasn’t possible a few years ago.
That Shang-Chi and the legend of the ten Rings has a strong box office prediction does put some pressure to do on the film. given the Labor Day history and the effort from AAPI groups to help folks see this movie, it must be able to meet them. If this were 2019 instead of 2021, I’d venture a guess that marvel Studios had another billion-dollar motion picture on their hands. They still do, it’s just going to take a little longer for the check to clear.
Shang-Chi and the legend of the ten Rings debuts in theaters September 3, 2021.
What do you think of the box-office prediction for Shang-Chi and the legend of the ten Rings? Do you think it will break the record,